- Insider met with a group of worried Ukrainian expats in London.
- One said that they are "frustrated, worried, and upset" about the threat of war.
- Amnesty International has warned of a "continent-wide" refugee crisis if Russia invades Ukraine.
In the Association of Ukrainians in Great Britain community center in West London, the atmosphere feels light, like a gathering of old friends and family.
But as you turn into the kitchen area, the mood dips. Sitting down with Natalia Ravlyuk, the conversation immediately moves to potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine and how many thousands of Ukrainians living in England are fearfully watching events in their Eastern European homeland.
Ravlyuk has lived in London for more than 20 years, but it's clear she still considers Ukraine her home.
Watching from the safety of London, with the borders of Ukraine now surrounded by Russian troops, Ravlyuk said the Ukrainian expat community is "frustrated, worried, and upset" and as though "World War III is here."
A lot of the frustration is because, Ravlyuk said, they've been here before: "We've been asking the Western countries for years, 'Please hear us. This needs to end.'"
And it's not just the adults who are watching the news seemingly grow more menacing each day. Inna Hryhorovych, the head of St Mary's Ukrainian School, which is attached to the cultural center, told Insider how her 10-year-old child will ask her for an update each day.
"The children here, they go there every year," she said. "They love Ukraine. They have parents who speak to grandparents every day. Right now, you can see in their eyes that they are worried about war.
"We've got children here who have come here as refugees from areas already impacted by Russian intervention. And those kids also share what they've been through. So the other kids are worried that their relatives will go through the same thing."
Vlodko Pawluk, the head of the London branch of the Association of Ukrainians in Great Britain, is the son of World War II refugees.
"They were grateful that the Brits allowed them to stay here making a life of their own. They didn't sit us down and tell us that the Russians were enemies, but they explained to us what the USSR was like, what the Russians were like, why they had to flee, and what we're seeing now … nothing's changed."
Ukraine is a former Soviet state, meaning that Russia, which largely dominated the USSR, essentially ruled Ukraine from 1919 to 1991, with millions suffering under the regime.
Ukraine endured the Holodomor, a devastating famine in the 1930s that several countries have since recognized as a genocide. The UN estimates 7 million to 10 million Ukrainians starved to death.
Ukraine declared independence in 1991.
But, as with recent events, the threats from Russia have not stopped, with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying on Thursday that Europe faces "its most dangerous moment" in decades.
Later, the conversation — the mood solemn — circled back to families and loved ones in Ukraine.
"I just can't understand what we're going to do with the families back home. We don't have any plans." Hryhorovych said.
"The saddest thing is we will not be able to do anything," Ravluk said.
"Yeah, because the links will be cut off. That's the problem. So there'll be no escape from it. No means for us to go and be with them because they will be isolated," Hryhorovych said before silence descended over the table, while the children upstairs still played.
A dread that 'casualty rates are going to be horrendous'
"This has been coming for a long time, and it would have happened sooner or later anyway," Pawluk said.
"To be honest, I think Ukraine has lived through a lot worse: World War II, the famine. We know these troubles, So nobody wants another war." He added: "If it does kick off, the casualty rates are going to be horrendous on all sides."
The Washington Post reported last week that a US military intelligence assessment suggested that a full-scale Russian invasion could cause 50,000 Ukrainian civilian casualties and a refugee crisis across Europe.
"It is frightening to imagine what scale the refugee crisis could reach in the event of escalating hostilities in Ukraine. It will be a continent-wide humanitarian disaster," Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International's secretary-general said in a statement.
Ukrainians have been here before
Ukraine has been living under Russian military threat "for much of its history," wrote Marnie Howlett, a lecturer in politics and international relations at Oxford University.
Fear of President Vladimir Putin's encroaching influence is not unique to 2022, the group told Insider.
"I am in complete physical pain because all these years have gone by and we are still in square one," Ravlyuk said. "It's like we are hamsters who are running in a wheel."
When asked whether they felt let down by countries with whom they were allied, they agreed.
"We had hope in Europe. We sincerely believed that they were going to help us," At this point, Ravlyuk's voice broke, and a tear rolled down her cheek.
"I personally believed them. But now, we are here again."
It isn't just the West they criticized but also the Ukrainian government, saying government officials are a "bunch of idiots" who they believe need to "increase the budget for the army — not today, but yesterday."
Up to 14,400 Ukrainians have been killed and 54,000 people have been injured as a result of the conflict, since 2014, according to UN estimates.
Hryhorovych recalled her childhood, as a citizen of the USSR under a Soviet dictatorship. "I remember my parents being called to the school, and I had to go to detention because we were told to wear the badges with Lenin on our hearts. I wouldn't wear it, so I was punished. We're so lucky that Ukraine moved on, but I think that never stopped in Russia."